Treasury Demand
Research on U.S. Treasury holdings, investor demand, and market resilience.
Who absorbs the continuing rise in U.S. Treasury supply, and how far must yields move when demand changes? Treasury Demand presents my research with Kristy Jansen and Lukas Schmid on the investors who hold Treasuries across maturities and the dealers and hedge funds that absorb residual supply.
Observed holdings show where debt ended up, but not why investors bought or sold or how yields responded. The project combines sector-level holdings, estimated investor demand, and an equilibrium model. It keeps historical evidence, estimates, and model-implied counterfactuals clearly separate.
Questions
- Who absorbed the expansion in marketable Treasury supply?
- Why can equal-sized foreign withdrawals produce different yield responses?
- How do inflation and quantitative tightening change demand across maturities?
- How do dealers and hedge funds absorb residual supply across maturities?