Fiscal Beliefs
Research on government debt valuation and sustainability, decisions, and fiscal expectations.
What do people believe gives government debt its value, how much fiscal risk do they perceive, and when do those beliefs enter decisions? Fiscal Beliefs connects my research with Ricardo Delao on survey evidence and my research with Kristy Jansen and Chris Leng on fiscal expectations.
The project compares stated beliefs across bond investors, registered voters, and respondents with graduate training in economics or finance. It also traces how projected taxes, spending, deficits, and debt change as policy and economic expectations evolve.
Questions
- What do people believe supports the value of government debt?
- How much debt-crisis risk and fiscal room do they perceive?
- When do fiscal concerns enter reported portfolio and voting decisions?
- How does the expected fiscal path change over time?
The survey evidence distinguishes stated beliefs, reported past decisions, and stated future intentions. It does not treat them as realized trades, votes, or the beliefs of the marginal investor setting Treasury prices.